REFOCuS - We can't predict future, but we can model it


As we said in the title, we can't predict future, but during the REFOCuS project we modelled and developed maps of species occurrence probability under climate change along with maps of seed transfer zones and their predicted spatial change over time for you to use for 10 important tree species of southeast European riparian forests.

These maps will allow forest and conservation managers to already today select forest reproductive material that is suitable for future climate conditions.


Species occurrence probability under climate change

The models predict the probability of occurrence of a certain tree species depending on the climate of given location – if the climate of a given location is very unsuitable for a certain species, the probability of occurrence is very low, and the value is close to zero for this particular location. A developed selection of 10 maps shows the present probability of occurrence as well as the modelled future probability of occurrence for two selected climate change scenarios (moderate and strong climate change), and two time periods (mid of the century and end of the century) for the seven most important riparian tree species.


Seed transfer zones and their predicted spatial change over time

A selection of six maps shows the development of seed transfer zones during both selected climate change scenarios. Depending on the species, the modelling identified different variables as the important ones for modelling a species occurrence (such as seasonal maximum temperature, seasonal mean precipitation, degree-days below a certain temperature, annual heat, moisture index…). Geographic ranges with similar climate have been grouped together into a cluster by these variables and given a unique colour code attribute. Therefore, the clusters are specifically adapted to the most important variables for each of the 10 species.


To plan reforestations, the provided set of maps should always be used in combination.


If you are interested in above mentioned maps and want to use them in your practice please take a look at our Output – Transnational seed transfer zones where you can find out more about the methodology used for producing maps and also download them.

Likewise, you can find more information about the topic in our REFOCuS book.

Programme co-funded by European Union funds (ERDF, IPA, ENI)